Slogans are for people who need to be told what to think.
I've looked at the stock market today - and everything was enormously green. Green. Green. Green. Was election saga done? I thought. What was going on? Then, few clicks away, and I've seen the headline: Pfizer's COVID19 vaccine effective! ---My first thought: Is it? My second thought: And?
For some inexplicable reason, the world decided - sometimes and somewhere - that the vaccine against SARS-Cov2, a cause of COVID19, is our holy grail, much needed to go back to normal life. We, as a civilization, dealt with much worse than COVID19 - much, much worse - and went back and forward between normal and pandemic countless times before. Yet, suddenly, now we need "a holy grail", so our stock markets can function...Why? ---Needless to say, no idea. However, let us analyse quickly - because it is not much - what Pfizer published today (link below).
Relevant paragraph: "After discussion with the FDA, the companies recently elected to drop the 32-case interim analysis and conduct the first interim analysis at a minimum of 62 cases. Upon the conclusion of those discussions, the evaluable case count reached 94 and the DMC performed its first analysis on all cases. The case split between vaccinated individuals and those who received the placebo indicates a vaccine efficacy rate above 90%, at 7 days after the second dose. This means that protection is achieved 28 days after the initiation of the vaccination, which consists of a 2-dose schedule. As the study continues, the final vaccine efficacy percentage may vary..."
First thing you have to read from this paragraph is that this is report for interim analysis - meaning, preliminary testing (to see whether further testing is worth it. Their conclusion: it is.). However, what you need to know "evaluable case count of 94" means that 94 cases of COVID19 were detected across control (received placebo) and experimental (received vaccine) groups. Following analysis, 90% more COVID19 cases occured in control group while only 10% occured in experimental group. A translation for non-scientists: this means that if half of stock brokers receive placebo and 90 of those stock brokers gets ill, within the vaccinated half you will find 10 brokers also contracting COVID19. I bet that "holy grail" seems bit less "holy", now.
The second thing I want you to observe is that 90% "may vary" - meaning, by the end of trials it can go up or down, meaning those 10 brokers can become 20 or 5 - we are yet to learn.
28 days is significant timepoint as most of very severe COVID19 cases pass away within month from diagnosis.
Overall, this is why press release states: "...The first interim analysis of our global Phase 3 study provides evidence that a vaccine may effectively prevent COVID-19..." Read carefully - may. Yet, as they told all of us, there will be cases where it won't. This is just a nice way to say that their interim analysis makes them hopeful that they are not wasting their time and resources continuing trials.
The truth is these results are hopeful; for people doing trials and for us to reach - ironically - "herd immunity" through vaccination. In other words- even if efficacy stays at 90% - a good number of people, receiving a vaccine, will still have to rely on the herd immunity for protection rather vaccine-induced immunity.
Additionally, we are currently offered very little to understand how well were these participants screened for pre-existing immunity (how well can we screen anyone for COVID19 immunity?), how well measuring antibody titers (amount of antibody that should protect against COVID19) relates to protection against SARS-Cov2 protection etc...
To conclude, this is actually not Pfizer-criticism post. On contrary, I am actually admiring that Pfizer achieved so much in such a short period of time. The point of this post is to get you, a reader, to understand what published numbers mean - for you. Nothing can keep you 100% safe. Nothing.
Even the best vaccines are not "the holy grail".
This was a very late recording contrasting two news articles about Omicron - so called "Covid super-strain".
I know I haven't been around lately...work...life...However, the 12-years-old clip popped into my feed and I wanted to share it. The reason? This clip provides the great basic understanding into what are the issues with so-called "evidence" related to anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change and the lack of logic when it comes to the interpretation of such evidence. The sad reality is that even after 12 years from this clip, we are still forced to endure nonsensical conclusions that hurricanes hitting Florida are caused by big bad climate change.
The mainstream media is doubling down on the alarmism, and it is not hard to guess why. However, to be fair, consider my little observation an educated guess, an opinion, rather than the fact. Time will show whether I am right.
(1) 'Climate change affects everyone': Europe battles wildfires in intense heat by Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/spain-portugal-battle-wildfires-heatwaves-scorch-southern-europe-2022-07-17/)
If you spent time in Southern Europe, Mediterranean, during summer season - July and August in particular - you probably know that heat-induced wildfires are nothing new. In fact, they are quite common and remarkably devastating for the affected communities, and I have witnessed several in person. Most of the time, the wildfires occur due to heat igniting grasses, especially in the areas where there are broken glass or broken bottles. The glass serves as an amplifier for the sun rays, especially, in the vicinity of dry grasses, or even dry pine needles, and as ...
